Intensifying contradictions
For most of my life, Syria has been dominated by the brutality of the Assad regime. Hafez al-Assad came to power in 1971, ruling with an iron fist. In 2000 he handed power over to his son, Bashar al-Assad. For a brief moment the younger Assad offered some hope for a more open government, but this quickly faded. Since 2011, Assad’s response to the Arab Spring has been especially violent, marked by political repression, imprisonment, torture, and death to those who dared to disagree with him.
The joy and hope of people in Syria are real, as they take to the streets, return home, and gather in prayer. But this joy should not obscure the dramatic, unpredictable shifts that are happening in our world. The contradictions created by greed, self-interested nation states, and extractive capitalism are intensifying.
Certainly, the people of Syria are welcoming the new possibilities of constructing a better future. And Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), led by Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, appears to be making moves toward more responsive governmental actions. It has assured religious and cultural minorities that they will be protected and has consciously moved toward more moderate stands as they have evolved over the last few years.
But this was not a “popular” uprising. The long hands of colonial powers and former empires are everywhere. Fully 30% of the militia forces are made up of fighters from Central Asia, not Syria.
Over the last decade Syria has been devastated by civil war and foreign interventions. Over 100,000 people have been displaced by the Kurdish struggles, land that contains oil has come under US control, and Russia has established strong military bases, including its only warm water port. The basic infrastructure has been crippled by a lack of electricity as people have been living with only 2 hours a day of power. As people celebrated the fall of Assad, the fall of bombs dropped by Israel and the US dominated the airspace. Nearly 500 bombs were dropped on infrastructure by Israel within two days.
The complexities emerging because of the shifting political structures in Syria demonstrate how much fundamental global alignments are shifting. And how very much this moment demands a wisdom and maturity that those in authority do not have. Believing in violence as a means of control, global elites are not able to grasp the deeper dynamics that are shaping our world. As elites attempt to solve one problem, they create another. Even as Netanyahu celebrates the weakening of Syria, he is creating conditions that can lead us toward even more devastation.
A weakened Syria opens a pathway to Iran. Yes, it allows Israel to grab more land. But Iran, without the buffer of Syria and its conventional military forces, is likely to accelerate its nuclear capacity. Over this last year, Iran has shown remarkable restraint in the face of Israeli/US provocation. But now, with the fall of Assad and the rise of Trump, Iran is likely to feel especially vulnerable. It will feel justified in backing its considerable air power with nuclear capabilities.
At the same time, the newly opened possibility of a more democratic form of governance among the Syrian peoples will almost certainly be pro-Palestinian. As Joseph Daher, a Swiss Syrian activist and scholar, noted on Democracy Now, “Israel has no interest to see a democratization process in Syria, just as in the larger Middle East, because it knows it will bring more solidarity with the Palestinian.”
For the first time in decades the people of Syria have a possibility to create a more just, democratic and peaceful society. But that hope is very far away as political forces gather for their own interests.
Our responsibility, living in country that has created much of this violence, is to organize to create a different kind of government, rooted in peace, production for people and the protection of the planet, and in respect for life. The alternative is a path toward greater destruction.